The coming election will be viewed with much interest and anticipation and it will determine whether true democracy will finally take hold in Somaliland or a return to the status quo will prevails.Reports coming back from all six regions in the country indicate that the momentum and all the excitement favor the opposition parties, particularly Kulmiye Party if crowd size at rallies can be an early indicator of supporter enthusiasm.
Both opposition parties have been successful in presenting their platforms and woo voters to their respective camps, while Udub finally produced a platform a week into the campaign that pretty much promises more of the same for tthe next five years to the voters. The most original approach was taken by Kulmiye by promising to open up the political process for newcomers to participate in the next municipal election, and in so doing gained the support of the banned political party Qaran and it's charismatic leader Dr. Gabose. Ucid concentrated on bread and butter issues such as free public education and good governance, and it also recruited the Speaker of the House Mr. Abdirahman "Cirro" as the other face for the party, with the understanding that win or lose Mr. "Cirro" will be the next chairman of the Ucid party.
The opposition also outmaneuvered the ruling party by not leaving a safe region in the country for Udub including the president's home base by nominating running mates on both opposition parties that are capable of siphoning votes away from the president because of their family ties in the region. These developments combined with popular dissolution with the ruling party's reign over the last seven years is what is convincing most observers that support for the ruling party has eroded considerably and staunched base supporters in previous elections cannot be taken for granted anymore.
Sample polling conducted by EAPI consultants in all major cities (Hargeysa, Berbera,Burco, Sheikh and Borame) suggest that the ruling Party Udub will be hard pressed to stay competitive and may lose big on election day given the razor thin margin of their victory during the last presidential election (eighty votes).
The finding is substantiated by the mood of the electorate and reflects deep frustration with the current regime in the way it has governed the country the last seven years, where corruption is rampant, the economy is stagnant and abusive powers and disregard for the laws of the country are a common place in the current administration.
Conservative estimates put the price tag on misappropriated government funds and lost potential revenue surrendered on no bid contracts to foreign firms at over $100.000.000 (hundred million dollars) during the tenure of President Rayale. The monopolies spawned by the no bid contracts such as the Saudi businessman AL-Jabari who was given total control over the exportation of live stock, where price controls were immediately imposed on local merchants and a highly sought Somali sheep worth a $100 in Jeddah must be sold to Aljabari for $30.00.This thirty cents on the dollar return imposed by the government on local merchants combined with prohibitive fuel costs levied on transportation by “Total”, the other foreign Monopoly empowered by the government created the absurd condition where fuel imported from Ethiopia a land locked country is cheaper than the fuel stored at the fuel depots in Berbera a port city.
While Somaliland made many strives and accomplished major milestones in terms of its steady push toward an indigenous form of democracy closely mirroring in structure to the form of democracy practiced in the US, it has been missing the mark lately due to massive miss-management of meager resources and rampant corruption at the highest level of the government.
According to sources close to the State Department and the Sub- committee for African Affairs in the US Congress, the Rayale administration is regarded as a problem regime incapable of implementing and safeguarding its own laws and agreements reached with opposition parties or the international community. The fact that elections kept being postponed and presidential terms extended repeatedly are seen as a major factor and concern in introducing instability in a region plagued with radicalism and shaky regimes. Just as EAPI predicted in Sept. 08 (Good Intention Bad Timing article) subjugating the election to the voter registration process turned out to be a critical mistake which brought the country to the very edge of disaster on numerous occasions.
The lack of establishing any checks and balances to curb the excessive and sometime abusive powers unleashed on the population is also seen as an obstacle to true democracy and accountability as evidenced by the US Department of State 2009 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices in the country where it states that:
“Use of excessive force by Somaliland government forces resulted in the deaths of demonstrators during the year (see section 2.b.).
In Somaliland an estimated 60 percent of the budget was allocated to maintaining a militia and police force composed of former soldiers. Abuses by police and militia members were rarely investigated, and impunity remained a problem. Police generally failed to prevent or respond to societal violence.
No action was taken against members of the security forces or militias who committed killings in 2008 or 2007, and there was no progress in the investigations of killings reported in previous years.”
In a recent hearing (Wednesday March 24, 2010) of the Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health Chairman Donald M. Payne remarked:
“The Government of Somaliland in February handed over a woman named Mrs. Bishaaro [bih- SHAH-ro], a registered refugee in Somaliland, to Ethiopian security forces. A few years ago she was arrested and tortured by Ethiopian security and her husband was executed. I understand there is a delegation visiting from Somaliland currently and hope to learn what the U.S. position is on this case and on Somaliland more broadly.”
Unfortunately the Somaliland delegation failed to meet with the congressman and went back home not resolving very serious concerns expressed both by the US State Department and the most influential Committee in Congress charged with African Affairs. The half hazard and sometime short sighted diplomacy emanating from Hargeysa has convinced many in Washington that Somaliland is not likely to advance its nascent democracy beyond its current state nor improve its fragile economy without a radical change of direction in the way it is currently governed.
The accumulative effect of these stifling and draconian rules had a devastating and suppressive effect on the local economy and increased hardship across the board on the local population, from the nomad tending his heard to the city dweller working on his commission at the point of sale. Additionally, the innumerable offenses and insults of everyday life ranging from extra-judicial arrests of ordinary citizens as well as noted politician, and the routine killing spree of the police on demonstrators have taken a toll on the population who seem to indicate that they are ready for a change.
Having studied the results of the previous presidential and parliamentary election, and taking into consideration the mood of the electorate as well as the increased registration on the roll this time around, EAPI projects the coming election to unfold in this manner:
A little background and a quick look at previous elections should provide us a good point of departure before a realist forecast can be made about this coming election.
Regional Distribution of Votes in Somaliland’s Elections
Region District 2002 % Presidential 2003 % Parliamentary 2005 %
Hargeysa 186,383 42 208,864 43 253,229 38
Awdal 100,495 23 65,934 13 133,026 20
Saaxil 27,234 6 30,537 6 52,479 8
Togdheer 66,598 15 115,064 24 121,751 18
Sanaag 53,096 12 57,938 12 89,286 13
Sool 6,261 2 9,702 2 20,557 3
(Sources: Bradbury et al, 2003; NEC, 2005.)
Voting Results and Distribution of Seats in the Parliamentary Elections
Regions UCID Kulmiye UDUB Total
Votes % Seats Votes % Seats Votes % Seats Votes % Seats
Awdal 31,492 23.7 3 26,837 20.2 3 74,691 56.1 7 133,020 20 13
Hargeysa 75,796 29.9 6 95,881 37.9 8 81,552 32.2 6 253,229 38 20
Saaxil 18,331 34.9 4 12,355 23.5 2 21,793 41.5 4 52,479 8 10
Sanaag 17,907 20.1 2 36,652 41.1 5 34,727 38.9 5 89,286 13 12
Sool 2,436 11.8 2 8,964 43.6 4 9,157 44.5 6 20,557 3 12
Togdheer 34,583 28.4 4 47,639 39.1 6 39,592 32.5 5 121,751 18 15
Total 180,545 26.9 21 228,328 34.1 28 261,449 39 33 670,322 100 82
Source: NEC, 2005.
Cumulative Votes Received by Candidates from each Sub-Clan
Candidates’ UCID Kulmiye UDUB Total
Sub-Clans Votes % Seats Votes % Seats Votes % Seats Votes % Seats
S. Muuse* 23,149 13 2 48,558 21 5 40,448 16 2 112,155 17 9
C. Muuse* 14,703 8 3 10,936 5 1 21,980 8 3 4 7,619 7 7
H. Yoonis 61,025¹ 34 8 18,504 8 1 51,588 20 8 131,117¹ 20 17
H. Jeclo 12,831 7 2 69,881 31 9 32,299 12 5 115,011 17 16
Gudibiirsi 31,315 18 3 26,198 12 3 80,143² 31 7 137,656 21 13
Arap 3,476 2 29,005 13 3 11,612 4 2 44,093 7 5
Ciidagele 29,559 17 2 3,981 2 6,791 3 40,331 6 2
D/hante 1,746 1 1 3,368 2 3 3,705 1 2 8,819 1 6
Wersengeli 25 5,198 2 2 4,480 2 2 9,703 2 4
Ciise 140 5,717 2 1 5,857 1 1
Ayuub 5,095 2 1 5,095 1 1
Toljecle 4,409 2 4,409 1
Gabooye 615 1,967 1 2,582
Hawiye 726 1 726 - 1
Total 178,444 100 21 225,999 100 28 260,730 100 33 666,173 82
In 2005 the total number of voters who cast their vote in the Parliamentary election was 670,328, in this election the voter rolls have grown to over a million registered voters even after the new server "cleaned up" the system from people who may have registered multiple times. Taking into account that most of the regions which gained the largest number of new voters are dominated by the opposition parties, especially Kulmiye party, combined with the sour mood of the population toward the ruling party EAPI projects a sound victory for the Kulmiye party in the coming election.
With Ucid and Kulmiye both taking voters away from Udub a conservative 5-10% swing away from the ruling party can easily produce 50/100,000 vote victory margin for Kulmiye, and when the last election was decided by eighty votes, a 100,000 vote margin is a landslide.
Most observers believe that Somaliland has the right ingredients to succeed given its geography, land mass, population potential mineral resources and a population eager to carve its own future, but the right leadership is required to achieve the bare minimum and realize what has eluded most of Africa, and that is a change of leadership with ballots instead of bullets.
Let’s all hope and pray that the people of Somaliland can see their way through the fog of past elections and chart a new future for themselves and their country.
East Africa Policy Institute
www.eastafricapi.com
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